Thursday, March 4, 2010

Oscar Predictions

This Sunday is the broadcast of the 82nd Oscars, the premiere award event for film, presented this year by Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin. It will be the first year in a long time that there are 10 nominations for best film and I've seen all of them except Up in the Air. Based on the 9 I've seen, I think this has been a great year in film to bring back 10 nominations. It's safe to say that, like it or not, Avatar, with its 9 nominations, will probably clean up. I just hope it doesn't cast a shadow over the other deserving nominations.

Here are my predictions for who/what will win in this year's categories:

- Best Picture: Avatar. Most people are thinking it's between this and The Hurt Locker but I think District 9 should get more credit here. Because it was freakin' awesome. What they should do is make an exception and enter director Kathryn Bigelow's Point Break instead of The Hurt Locker and just let it win everything.

- Actor in a Leading Role: Tough call here...especially since I haven't seen any of these films yet. I'm between Jeff Bridges, Colin Firth and Morgan Freeman. Interestingly, both Bridges and Freeman have been nominated 5 times between leading and supporting role...Freeman has won once for supporting...and this is Colin Firth's first nomination. Based on that, I'm narrowing it down to between Jeff Bridges and Colin Firth and saying that Colin Firth wins it.

- Actor in a Supporting Role: Another tough call since I've only seen one of these films (Inglorious Basterds). Christoph Waltz was fantastic in that role and I'd love to see him win but I'm thinking this goes to either Matt Damon or Woody Harrelson. Damon has one win under his belt for writing Good Will Hunting and I'm thinking he's picking up his second here.

- Actress in a Leading Role: I've seen all of these roles except Helen Mirren's. Sandra Bullock was surprisingly good in The Blind Side but it's easy to be surprised considering her past acting gigs. Meryl Streep did an amazing job as Julia Child but I'm going out on a limb and saying that Carey Mulligan steals this one.

- Actress in a Supporting Role: I've only seen one of these roles: Mo'Nique in Precious. And she deserves this win. I think she'll take it.

- Animated Feature Film: Don't yell at me, but I think Up is a little bit overrated. That said, it's the only nomination I've seen and considering all the buzz about it, it's safe to say that it will win.

- Art Direction: Avatar

- Cinematography: The Hurt Locker

- Costume Design: Straight up guess on this one, but it seems whenever there's a Victorian-era British nominee, it I'll say The Young Victoria.

- Directing: Here's the tough call of the night...James Cameron or Kathryn Bigelow? I'm hoping Kathryn Bigelow but thinking it will be James Cameron.

- Documentary Feature: I've seen 2 of these, The Cove and Food Inc. I'd be happy seeing either of them win but think that considering the lengths that the crew went to in The Cove, that it should win.

- Film Editing: District 9 deserves to win something and I think this is probably the one it could take.

- Music (Original Score): Avatar

- Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker

- Sound Mixing: Avatar

- Visual Effects: Avatar

- Writing (Adapted Screenplay): I'm torn here. I like Nick Hornby's writing style (An Education) but I don't think it will win here. District 9 is one hell of a screenplay but I'm thinking Up in the Air might steal it.

- Writing (Original Screenplay): Give it to Tarantino!! Personal favorite aside, Tarantino knows how to write dialogue and I think he'll take this one unless the Academy gets all snooty about his violence. We'll see.

Enjoy the show...let me know if you agree/disagree.


Mike said...

Ugh. You're probably right re: Avatar. I have no desire to see it and I don't really understand the hype. Blue people with a lame story line? Ok, it's got great special effects or something... so what? We're living in the future. In 5 years, Avatar will feel like it was made in 1930. Technology is changing. We shouldn't reward movies for changing with it.


I'm depressed now.

Kevin said...

Yeah...that's exactly why I think District 9 needs much more credit. Sure it wasn't released in 3D but that's irrelevant for awards. The technology in District 9 can easily compete with that of Avatar...and District 9 cost about 1/20th as much. Not to mention the whole minor thing that District 9 exposes a much more specific underlying theme in a better way.

That said, I have to admit Avatar was entertaining...but considering it cost 500 mill, it should have BLOWN me away and I can't really say that it did that. I walked out of the theater of District 9 with a way bigger impression.